One of the first articles published on this website last year was titled exactly this. Now, at this point 1 year ago, I truly did believe that there were only 5 contenders. This time around, we are going to have to make some tough cuts to slim this number down. I was able to correctly predict the Chiefs last season as on of my 5 (to be fair, they were in everybody's), so we'll see if I can go 2 for 2. Truth be told, it would be pretty embarrassing if I didn't given that their are only 14 teams in the playoffs to begin with, but the point still holds.
Kansas City Cheifs (15-2; 1 seed; Bye)
Much has been made about the Chiefs having one of the most unconvincing 15-2 records possible, but at the end of the day, if that unconvincing 15-2 squad has made the playoffs in 10 straight seasons with one of the most successful Head Coaches of all time and arguably* the best player in the league with 3 Super Bowl wins to his name in 7 seasons as the starter then they're going to be a contender. Patrick Mahomes has had a weaker-than-usual campaign, but weaker does not mean mad. Not at all, actually. He consistently turned it on when his team needed it most which has contributed to KC's 16 straight victories in one score games. Isaiah Pacheco suffered an injury early in the season, but Kareem Hunt came back to Missouri to fill in in Pacheco's absence. He hasn't looked entirely like the hard hitting, high-motor RB that he was last year since returning, but Hunt has remained with the team in a complementary role to keep the position serviceable.
Standout 2nd year WR Rashee Rice went down early in the year with a torn ACL suffered while trying to make a tackle, and despite trading for veteran DeAndre Hopkins midseason, TE Travis Kelce once again found himself carrying a large chunk of the receiving load. Questions have arisen about whether this team can keep it up when it matters -- if they can consistently win one score games even against some of the NFL's best. Personally, I would expect the team that has made the AFC championship game 6 straight years to be able to win in the playoffs, but that could just be me.
Detroit Lions (15-2; 1 Seed; Bye)
The Lions are back in the playoffs for a second straight year after previously holding one of the NFL's longest streaks. Dan Campbell has built up a strong culture that has Detroit faithful holding on to hope for the first time in a while. Former #1 overall pick Jared Goff has revived his career after a trade sent him over from Los Angeles, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has rocketed himself into top 5 conversations after his recent AP All-Pro selection. TE Sam LaPorta has made fans forget about now-division rival T.J. Hockensen, and the offensive line has been one of, if not the best in the league. Still, nothing has been more important to this offense than the RB tandem of Jamhyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Nicknamed by their teammates as "Sonic (Gibbs) and Knuckles (Montgomery)," these two have split snaps throughout their 2 years together and not once has there been any sort of a complaint by either player. Montgomery went down with what was suspected to be a season-ending injury early in week 15, and is now expected back for the Divisional Round.
The question was never the offense, though. Ben Johnson's guys have been consistently explosive all season, a large part of the reason that he is getting so many head coaching looks. Aaron Glenn and the defense is the worry. Superstar DE Aidan Hutchinson suffered a supposed season-ending injury around midyear, but even he is holding out hope that he will return in the Super Bowl, should they make it. If the defending 11 are able to even somewhat hold it together through the NFC championship, they can hope for Hutchinson's return and move from their. Their offensive firepower should be enough if the defense can force even just a couple punts or turnovers, but time will tell in Michigan.
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3; 2 Seed; First round vs. Green Bay packers)
I begrudgingly placed the Eagles on this list last year despite a horrific end to the regular season, and they responded by falling in the first round, so hopefully I'm just as lucky this time around. However , Nick Sirianni's squad has me convinced this year. A healthy Jalen Hurts behind the best offensive line in the league, with the best running back in the league, and one of the best WR duos in the league might even be enough for a team without a good defense. But this Philly team has just as strong, if not a stronger 11 on the defensive side of the ball. They have a game wrecker in Jalen Carter that will keep any QB in check, and the top 2 DBs of last year's draft class, one of which they were somehow able to get in the second round.
They have a challenging first round matchup against Green Bay, especially considering that they are the 7 seed, but if they are able to make it through that, I believe the pure momentum could give them a huge boost. Their so-called "12th man" should not be overlooked, as the Philly faithful have been itching to get back to the Super Bowl since their loss to KC 2 short years ago. The Eagles are guaranteed home-field advantage through the first two rounds this season, an advantage that they did not have in their trip last year. Though unlikely, they could also host the NFC championship game -- should they make it their -- if Detroit loses in the divisional round. It's not an easy road for the Eagles, but this team has proven that they have the talent and composure to win big games in the regular season, now the question becomes whether they can do it in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills (13-4; 2 Seed; First round vs. Denver broncos)
Could this finally be the year for Josh Allen and Sean McDermott? The QB and HC duo have been so close to the Super Bowl for years, and would likely have made multiple by now if it weren't for the first team on this list being in the same conference as them. This has been the strongest regular season I can remember from them, though, and it finally feels like the stars have aligned in Buffalo. Despite a below-average WR room (though one that was improved by the midseason acquisition of Amari Cooper), this offense has consistently played like one of the best in the league, held up by big plays. McDermott does sometimes forget he has a RB, but when third year star James Cook is remembered by his Head Coach, he provides a nice compliment to Josh Allen's firepower.
Much like other teams on this list, the defense is what worries me. Throughout the season, they have let up 35 points to the Ravens, 44 to the Rams, and 42 to the Lions, all teams that they could potentially meet in the playoffs. They were able to come out with a gutsy 48-42 win, but you can't expect to let up 42 points and win in a playoff game. They handed Kansas City their first loss of the season (and the only one in a game where their starters played) earlier in the year, so they technically have the psychological advantage there. It's not an easy path for Buffalo, but it never really has been - they are just as much of a contender as anyone else.
Los ANgeles Chargers (11-6; 5 Seed; First round @ Houston Texans)
We had to have one wildcard team on this list, right? Even with that rule, many will question whether the Minnesota Vikings, who are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFC and only find themselves in this spot by virtue of being in the same division as the Lions, are a more worthy selection for this spot. That would be a completely understandable thought process, but I'm not entirely confident in Sam Darnold's ability to lead a team through the playoffs in his first attempt as a starting Quarterback, even with his tremendous supporting cast. The Chargers may not have the most star power, but they are a strong representation of the value of a good coach. Justin Herbert has a solid WR1 in rookie Ladd McConkey, and a viable yet unremarkable RB duo with JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
The key to whatever success this team may find lies on the defensive side of the ball. They have held down the fort pretty much all season, even while the offense struggled to find their rhythm. When you consider how talented every other offense in the AFC is, hold LA's first round opponents, you know that the Chargers won't be able to outgun them. They fought back from a 5-12 season with grit, and they will carve their own path through the playoffs the exact same way. Should they sneak by the 4th seeded Texans in round 1, they will face a daunting path where they will likely be underdogs in every single round. Jim Harabaugh is no stranger to playoff victories, but this it's been a while since his last one in the pros, he has been the best had coaching hire of this past cycle so far, and would only strengthen an already strong case with a deep run in his 2nd stint in the NFL.
Eli Knight
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