Welcome to On the Bubble, a new series where we will profile 8 teams who find themselves right on the March Madness bubble. A new edition will come out weekly up until Selection Sunday. If all goes right, 4 of these teams will make the NCAA tournament, and 4 will just miss it -- although those exact numbers are unlikely.
Arkansas (15-11)
In the first year of the Coach Cal era, Arkansas has found themselves in a peculiar position. They've had a rough stretch in SEC play that threatens to push them out of contention as the 13th seed in their conference. On the other hand, the SEC is well deserving of having 13 teams in the tournament. It was truly a toss up between Arkansas and Georgia to make this list, as I believe only 1 of these teams will find their way in, if that. Still, the Razorbacks' out of conference prowess in my opinion should be enough to push them in.
The selection committee should -- and will -- be watching the SEC tournament closely. It very well could come down to who between Arkansas and Georgia makes a deeper run. There is also a small chance that it comes down to a numbers game, and this committee doesn't want to put 12+ teams in from the same conference. This would be disappoint, as a team shouldn't be penalized by a selection process solely on the basis of being in too good of a conference.
Xavier (18-10)
The Musketeers are the only legitimate bubble team in a packed middle of the Big East conference. They've fought in conference play, having two close games against Marquette and coming away with one of them. The rest of the schedule for Xavier is fairly easy, but that may not be the best thing for them at this point. A loss in just one of those games could be all the committee needs as an excuse to keep them out. Their wins and losses don't exactly stand out in any way, which could work to their advantage.
The Big East tournament could go anywhere at this point, but a semifinal or further run could lock things up for Xavier. They have a tight matchup coming up against Creighton -- who is trying to keep themselves off the bubble -- in what will likely be their toughest game for the rest of the season. That, combined with the tournament, will be decision makers for the Musketeers.
Wake Forest (19-7)
The Demon Deacons have gone 11-4 in ACC play, and should end up with a fairly attractive cover to their resume if they are able to avoid a major upset in their last 5 games. Outside of 4 matchups against mediocre teams, Wake Forest has a house-money matchup against Duke to round out their year. After narrowly missing out on the tournament last year, this team came back with a vengeance.
There may not be many standout losses on their schedule, but this squad has struggled mightily against ranked teams. They lost in blowout fashion to Louisville, Florida, and Texas A&M. It gets interesting as it relates to other bubble teams, as they've lost to Xavier and beaten UNC. Now, that may not be exactly how this committee looks at things, so it is more important to look at their resumes. They're not exactly racked with Quad-1 wins, so a run in the ACC tournament may be a necessity to pad up their chances. Overall, it may come down to just 1 of the 3 ACC teams I've placed on this list, so the head to heads to end this ACC regular season hold great importance.
UC Irvine (22-5)
If you just looked at only their record, UC Irvine would be a lock for March Madness. Still, the stigma that comes with non-Power 4 conferences is only legitimized by this season from the Anteaters. Each of their 5 losses have come against teams that are fairly unlikely to make the tournament. They realistically should cruise to a win in their conference tournament, but several losses have put that in jeopardy along with strong performances down the stretch from UC San Diego. One more regular season loss would likely put them out of contention. Even without losing the rest of the way, they would have to make their conference finals combined with a rocky ending from some other bubble teams to give them a fair shot.
The committee is rarely looking for an opportunity to give a Big West team an at large bid, so they very well could have ruled UC Irvine out already. It's still possible, but this team could set a precedent for what non power conference teams need to do to make the tournament, and they likely still won't.
SMU (20-6)
In their first year in the ACC, SMU has fended well. They certainly benefited from an easy out of conference schedule, and have also struggled against each ranked team they've faced. They've lost by double digits to Duke and Louisville, in addition to a 15 point loss to fellow bubble team UNC, and by 5 to Mississippi State.
The Mustangs, from an outsider's perspective, have a fairly strong resume. However, when you really look at their season, there isn't much substance holding them up. A selection committee that loves to look at Quad-1 victories isn't likely to give the benefit of the doubt to SMU over more proven teams. They will likely need to win 4 of their final 5 games, a tough task considering they will look for their first ranked win against Clemson before their last4. This, combined with a couple of wins in the ACC tournament could send SMU into March Madness in their first year in the conference.
VCU (21-5)
VCU is one of a few teams on the bubble who I would consider likely to win their conference tournament. Even if they don't, though, they've built a strong resume for a non-Power 4 team. Though they are yet to play a ranked team, the Rams have had their fair share of tests against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. In addition, they have suffered just 2 losses in conference play and find themselves as the 2 seed in the Atlantic 10 - right behind George Mason.
If they make the tournament, I think it's unlikely that VCU makes a deep run, but they could be an upset candidate early on as a likely 8-11 seed. In order to get in, though, they should need to win their final 5 conference games - one of which coming against George Mason. They may also require a finals berth in the A10 tournament, however, which is probably more likely than not. If the Rams can stay focus and not slip up down the stretch, they could avenge their narrow miss of the tourney from last year.
Oklahoma (16-11)
Would you believe that one of the teams that we are talking about for a March Madness bubble spot currently sits at 14th in their conference? If you said yes, you're correct. Oklahoma has struggled through a challenging SEC schedule, going 3-10 so far. They have managed to beat several ranked teams - all coming out of conference - which could help them come selection Sunday. They have managed to beat Arkansas, and that win over a fellow bubble team could propel them forward, but they will need to end their 5 game losing streak soon.
In their final 5 games, the Sooners face 4 ranked teams. Even just 1 victory in those 4 games, combined with a win against unranked Texas could give Oklahoma a fair shot at the tournament. The SEC tournament is going to be tricky, though. Just 1 or 2 wins could give them what they need. We've outlined 3, maybe 4 games that this Oklahoma team needs to win to have a shot at the NCAA tournament. Anything they win outside of those will more than likely be against a ranked team, and is essentially playing with house money. Despite an ugly record, the Sooners are completely in the race for March.
North Carolina (16-11)
Despite what has largely been a disappointing season for the Tar Heels, they find themselves right on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament. Their average-at-best record is due in part to an absolute gauntlet of an out of conference schedule. One advantage of that tough schedule is that, despite a poor record, they were able to squeak out some Quad 1 wins and keep it close against the likes of Florida, Kansas, and Michigan State. I doubt that the committee will hold their close losses against ranked teams against UNC when other bubble teams are yet to play any of them.
The demise of the Tar Heels could be more related to their struggles in ACC play. They have gone just 9-6 in a weaker than usual conference, and even their wins haven't been very convincing. They have 4 fairly easy matchups left - each of which I would label as a "must win". In addition to those 4, They have a season ending rivalry matchup against Duke at home. That game -- while it may not be necessary -- would be a huge boost to their March Madness hopes. After that, UNC has the ACC tournament, which will likely be the decider for the 3 ACC bubble teams outlined here.
CRystal Ball Prediction:
VCU
Wake Forest
Xavier
SMU
Eli Knight
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