On the Bubble: The Case for Each Team as Selection Sunday Inches Closer (#4)

Welcome to On the Bubble, a new series where we will profile 8 teams who find themselves right on the March Madness bubble. A new edition will come out weekly up until Selection Sunday. If all goes right, 4 of these teams will make the NCAA tournament, and 4 will just miss it -- although those exact numbers are unlikely.

         3 weeks ago we gave a general introduction to what the teams need to do to make March Madness, and now we will review what they did last week, and how it effects their chances.

Arkansas (20-13)

       It was an up and down week for Arkansas, who took down Mississippi State and South Carolina by a combined 5 points, before losing to Ole Miss by 3 points in a game that likely could have clinched their at-large bid. Now, John Calipari and co. will have to play the waiting game, actively rooting against bid stealers and fellow bubble teams all the way up until Sunday, where their fate will be decided. I personally think that their competitiveness in such a tough conference is deserving of a bid, but I'm not the committee.

Xavier (21-11)

       The Musketeers had rattled off 7 straight in convincing fashion up until the Big East tournaments, and earned a 10 point lead at half time against #25 Marquette, but an unfortunate second half leaves them just about square on the bubble. Unfortunately for them, their 7 wins all came against unranked opponents, and they did little down the stretch to improve their rather unimpressive resume, but we will see if the committee values strong wins against lesser teams, or if they are looking for big statement victories. 

Wake FOrest (21-11)

       At the beginning of this series, Wake Forest was viewed as very close to a lock. They proceeded to go 2-4, including losses to Virginia and NC State, the latter didn't even qualify for the 15 team ACC tournament. This Demon Deacons squad appears to have sadly played themselves out of the bubble, and their loss to fellow bubble team North Carolina on Thursday in the conference tournament may very well have been the final nail in the coffin. 

UC Irvine (28-6) 

       They only had to notch 1 win in order to reach the conference finals, and the Anteaters looked unprepared against UC San Diego. It feels like they rested all of their stock on a possible auto-bid preseason, and their strength of schedule - much like most non power-4 teams - became their demise. Their is still a small chance that the committee lets them in thanks to a 28 win season, but hope appears to be bleak for UC Irvine after a disappointing Saturday. 

SMU (23-10)

       SMU struggled almost immediately once they were placed on this list. For a while there, it looked like the first 3/4 of the season would be enough to hold up a weak final stretch, but losses to bottom feeders of the ACC and a conference tourney loss to Clemson I believe has officially sent the Mustangs packing. SMU's struggle is the small number of ACC at large bids I am expecting, and their resume is lacking next to other bubble teams like UNC and even Wake Forest. 

VCU (28-6)

       The Rams secured the Atlantic 10 conference's automatic bid after winning the conference championship against George Mason Sunday, saving other bubble teams from a possible bid stealer. They should slot in as a 9 or 10 seed, but will require a couple of big wins to make any sort of a run. 

Oklahoma (20-13)

       The Sooners secured a win over Georgia in the first round of the SEC tournament, and had a close loss to Kentucky that I believe still boosted their chances. Pair that with a win over Texas earlier in the week, and I believe Oklahoma has locked down a spot in the First Four in Dayton. The real question surrounding them, however, is just how many teams the SEC will send - shockingly, the answer is between 12 and 14, and Oklahoma may have knocked out at least one in the last week of their regular season. 

North Carolina (22-13)

       Two losses to the #1 team in the country in the same week, no less their biggest rival, may just be the not-so storybook ending to RJ Davis's college career. The Tar Heels deserve props, though, for strengthening their resume up until the very last second, fighting back from a 24 point hole Friday to make a game of it, but a Jaelyn Withers lane violation did them in, possibly devaluing a very strong stretch of games after a rough start to ACC play. Sunday should be interesting for UNC, whose fate will come down to how much weight the committee puts in Quad-1 victories (a lot, but just how much).