On the Bubble: The Case for Each Team as Selection Sunday Inches Closer (#2)

       Welcome to On the Bubble, a new series where we will profile 8 teams who find themselves right on the March Madness bubble. A new edition will come out weekly up until Selection Sunday. If all goes right, 4 of these teams will make the NCAA tournament, and 4 will just miss it -- although those exact numbers are unlikely.

       Last week we gave a general introduction to what the teams need to do to make March Madness, and now we will review what they did last week, and how it effects their chances.

Arkansas (17-11)

       Arkansas did just what they needed to do this week, grabbing 2 big wins in season crunch time, with one of those wins coming against a ranked team. They have a fairly easy end to the regular season and somewhat low expectations in a jumbled SEC tournament, so winning out against #24 Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina may just boost them up into an at-large bid in the first year of the Coach K era in Arkansas. 

Xavier (19-10)

       They only had one game this week, but Xavier did what they needed to do. In a matchup against 7-21 Seton Hall, the Musketeers won by 7 to strengthen their conference standing. They have 3 games left on the schedule, each vitally important. A win on Saturday against likely tournament team Creighton would go a long way towards clinching bid. Speaking of which -- winning out and a couple wins in the Big East tournament might do it for Xavier - who came in to this as one of the better bubble teams. 

Wake Forest (19-9)

        The Demon Deacons had a brutal week that could be a season-ender. They lost to 2 of the ACC's worst in Virginia and NC State in a time when they couldn't afford even one loss to a non-Quad 1 school. For Wake Forest - a team that I had in my last four in last week - the path forward is now hazy. They have just 3 games left (1 of which against Duke), and they will need to win all of those and a deep run in the conference tournament for even a chance at an at-large bid. They've now fallen into the trap of losing control of their own destiny, and will need tons of help from other bubble hopefuls after a disastrous week. 

UC irvine (24-5) 

       As the biggest underdog, UC Irvine continued to tread water this week - essentially all they can do at this point. I've said before that it would take a lot for a non power-4 team to make March Madness, and the Anteaters simply don't have a strong enough schedule to help their resume. At this point, they will either need a major -- and I mean major -- collapse from other bubble teams, or a conference tournament win to get them in, but you never know. 

SMU (21-7)

       After a 10 point loss against a talented Clemson team, SMU held on for a 4 point win vs. ACC bottom-feeder California. It was an expected 1-1 for the Mustangs, and they should stay in the last 4 in because of Wake Forest, but they have several teams breathing down their necks waiting for them to mess up. They have 3 unranked games left that they are expected to win, so any mistake could be fatal, but this SMU team is alive for right now. 

VCU (24-5) 

       VCU had 3 games this week, the only team on this list to do so. They won by double digits in each of those 3 games, adding to an already strong resume that has been aided by a weak conference. Unfortunately for the Rams, that schedule might just hurt them down the stretch. With no favorable games left -- which would be games where they are not favored, oddly enough -- VCU is expected to win out. Despite it only being 2, a loss in either of the remaining matchups on the schedule would sink their chances. Should they win out, this team would only need a win or two in their conference tournament to lock  up an at-large bid. 

Oklahoma (17-11)

       Despite going 1-1 this week, I would argue the Sooners helped their chances. At this point in the season, it's all about building a resume, and going 1 for 2 against Quad 1 opponents in the same week would be good for just about any team, especially one that was on a 5 game losing streak. In their 3 remaining games, Oklahoma may need to win 2, but 2 of those matchups are against unranked SEC opponents. A victory against #14 Missouri would work volumes, and could take some of the load off in the conference tournament, a welcomed sight for the team no matter the time in the season. 

North Carolina (19-11)

       Under pressure, this UNC team came up with two big wins against ACC rivals Virginia and Florida State. After getting off to an early 21-2 lead against UVA, they held on the rest of the way en rout to a comfortable victory. On Monday, in a tight matchup against a solid Seminoles squad, the game looked tight. Even when they jumped out to a double digit lead, FSU came back. After everything, though, the Tar Heels came away with an 11 point victory. They will still likely need to win out -- with the exception of Duke -- and a couple of wins in the ACC tournament for their chance on Selection Sunday, but UNC is on the right track with a 4 game winning streak.