Welcome to On the Bubble, a new series where we will profile 8 teams who find themselves right on the March Madness bubble. A new edition will come out weekly up until Selection Sunday. If all goes right, 4 of these teams will make the NCAA tournament, and 4 will just miss it -- although those exact numbers are unlikely.
2 weeks ago we gave a general introduction to what the teams need to do to make March Madness, and now we will review what they did last week, and how it effects their chances.
Arkansas (18-12)
The Razorbacks' win against Vanderbilt didn't do enough to balance out their loss against lowly South Carolina. This is the time in the season where you can't afford much of any losses, let alone a loss against a non Quad-1 or 2 team. Their only remaining regular season game is against #25 Mississippi State, and a win there could benefit them greatly. I still think that the SEC bubble teams' fates will come down to the conference tournament, but a ranked victory to round out the regular season would certainly give them a nice cushion.
Xavier (20-10)
The Musketeers continued on with their 6 game win streak, getting fairly comfortable wins against Butler and Creighton. Though they don't have any wins that I would necessarily dub "big" on this streak, I think Xavier has done enough to earn their bid, assuming they avoid an upset against Providence and whomever they play in the first round of the Big East tournament. Throughout February and March, they've built an identity as a team who wins the games their supposed to win, and I believe that is an identity that should get them into the NCAA tournament, even if the resume is average.
Wake forest (20-10)
After escaping with a win against Notre Dame, the Demon Deacons were dismantled by Duke. With 2 rough losses the week before, it appeared as though they may need a win in Cameron Indoor, but they never really stood a chance. This team may need an NC State-type miracle in the ACC tournament to make it, as their one remaining regular season game comes against Georgia Tech, which wouldn't exactly be a statement win.
UC Irvine (26-5)
The Anteaters came away with 2 more wins this week, but their at-large hopes are essentially out of their control at this point. Luckily for them, though, the Big West isn't a very talented conference. Their biggest (and pretty much only) threat, UC San Diego, has a solid case for an at-large bid as well, so we seem dead set on UC Irvine vs. San Diego in the conference championship. Should Irvine lose in that game, however, they would need somewhat of a collapse from other power 4 bubble teams to sneak in on Sunday.
SMU (22-8)
The Mustangs' loss against an average Stanford team on Saturday may just knock them out of at-large contention. Even after that loss, they were lucky to come out with a win against Syracuse. With only Florida State left on the regular season schedule, it will likely come down to whether or not they can make a deep run in the ACC tournament. They've watched their multi round BYE hopes fade away after several losses at the tail end of the season, so any run would have to be a gritty one, which looks unlikely given their play as of late, but you never know.
VCU (25-6)
After a solid win against Duquesne Tuesday, the Rams suffered a heartbreaker against Dayton. Though Dayton is a strong team, any non-Quad 1 loss at this point could be fatal, especially for a bubble team. Much like most of the teams on the list, it may come down to their respective conference tournament. I think that VCU will likely have to make the finals, and even that may not guarantee their at-large bid. They're lucky, though, this conference is extremely winnable and they very well may win the A-10.
Oklahoma (18-12)
The Sooners dropped a heartbreaker against Ole Miss on Saturday, but bounced back in timely fashion for a Quad-1, top 15 win against Missouri. With one game left -- against Texas -- in the regular season, Oklahoma's fate likely relies on their ability to win 1, maybe 2 games in the SEC tournament. They've picked up the slack down the stretch against a brutal conference schedule, so I feel confident in their chances. Still, nothing is guaranteed for really any of these teams on this list, so the Sooners can't take anything for granted.
North carolina (20-11)
It's the same story for North Carolina, who has once again rattled off a 2 win week against some of the ACC's worst. Their 6 game win streak has included no major wins, but it should help their NET rating as they gear up for a regular season finale against Duke. Time will tell if the selection committee values these victories, but 6 straight wins in the home stretch will always be helpful for a bubble team. As of now, they have the 4 seed in the ACC tournament, which would set them up for a possible Quad-1 matchup against SMU, which they would desperately need to win.
Crystal Ball Prediction (Specific order):
Oklahoma
Xavier
VCU
Arkansas
Eli Knight
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